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Prediction markets for New Market Capital

Will Marc Andreessen start a new company (not an investment firm) by 2026?

Dec 6, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.7%chance

86899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7596

132

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

336494

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

76

5

5

5

4

4

1

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

23.39%chance

101448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

552

Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?

Nov 1, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.81%chance

41267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2225

449

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

7421

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

82

66

66

46

45

41

28

10

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