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Prediction markets for New Scientist

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.65%chance

7221457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7930

4041

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

19.62%chance

9718085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

586

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2436

734

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?

Jul 26, 10:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.15%chance

352635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2221

775

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

766

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Scott Alexander receives another critical newspaper profile by end of 2026?

Aug 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.08%chance

7136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

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