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Prediction markets for New Space

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.4%chance

471686608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17380

10301

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

3.24%chance

4494386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54636

1830

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

72%chance

7619689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1503

682

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

40.92%chance

1510159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

142880

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

64

52

40

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

75%chance

41305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.65%chance

11283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

947

Will a SpaceX rocket be launched from Australia or New Zealand by the end of 2028?

Sep 28, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.58%chance

3194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

When will CZEA acquire a new coworking space?

Aug 26, 12:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

By November

By October

By December

In 2025

33

22

22

22

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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