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Prediction markets for New Space

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

86%chance

8222307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2402

456

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

1711918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

655

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

669

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

129084

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2030-2031

2028-2029

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

15

10

9

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

3

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

19

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?

Jun 21, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.1%chance

12349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

885

Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.65%chance

11283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

947

Will a SpaceX rocket be launched from Australia or New Zealand by the end of 2028?

Sep 28, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.58%chance

3194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Will Spaceballs: The New One release on April 23, 2027?

Apr 16, 12:44 PMApr 23, 11:59 PM

53.4%chance

2125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

934

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