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Prediction markets for New Space

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16706

12559

Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?

Dec 29, 1:07 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

2.36%chance

10832776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12589

599

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

72%chance

7619689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1503

682

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

1611909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

655

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

518946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

789

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

83%chance

51355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

47

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3500

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2042-2043

2044-2045

>= 2046

2026

11

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

7

Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.65%chance

11283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

947

Will a SpaceX rocket be launched from Australia or New Zealand by the end of 2028?

Sep 28, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.58%chance

3194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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