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Prediction markets for New Space

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.31%chance

2629485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23517

4252

Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?

Dec 29, 1:07 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

3.69%chance

10429415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9270

700

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

71.63%chance

7217120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

688

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

40.92%chance

1510159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play?

Jun 10, 5:05 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.12%chance

227363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

422

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

75%chance

41305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.19%chance

101051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.65%chance

11283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

947

When will CZEA acquire a new coworking space?

Aug 26, 12:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

By November

By October

By December

In 2025

33

22

22

22

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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