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New Statesman News
Prediction markets for New Statesman
Prediction markets for New Statesman
Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?
Aug 11, 10:40 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
19.19%
chance
11
560
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1296
907
Longtermist Policymaking provokes Thermonuclear War by 1st Jan 2028
Aug 11, 11:42 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
10.9%
chance
10
391
Option
Votes
YES
NO
464
144
Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028
Aug 11, 11:25 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
39.31%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
78
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