New Wave News

Which Crumbles First? Manifold, or Ayatollah?

Jan 7, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

305485

OptionProbability

Ayatollah

Manifold

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

1088

922

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

1644

608

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

Apr 14, 12:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7579

OptionProbability

Sardinia, Italy

Border region of the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany

Saxony, Germany

Other

Luxembourg

New Eeveelution in Pokémon Gen 10 main-series games?

Dec 3, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

15394

OptionVotes

YES

113

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

9345

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

1103

957

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

115

New Wave News

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Which Crumbles First? Manifold, or Ayatollah?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

New Eeveelution in Pokémon Gen 10 main-series games?

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

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