New Wave News

What will be true of OpenAI's new compute-intensive offerings? [Add Answers]

Sep 21, 7:58 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

205968

OptionProbability

At least one is available by the end of October

At least one is a new model for generating videos

Includes an upgraded computer use agent

One prompt can cost >$10 for a user

At least one makes >=2/3 of Manifold poll voters "very surprised" by its abilities

At least one will be based on the agent that scored Gold on IMO

One scores >=40% on FrontierMath

One prompt can cost >$100 for a user

100

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

232894

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Brave Browser

Anytype

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

Flutter

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

X.com

roblox

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

Will the paper proposing two big bangs be "confirmed" by EOY 2025?

Dec 15, 12:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.63%chance

8848

OptionVotes

YES

567

128

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

Apr 14, 12:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6479

OptionProbability

Sardinia, Italy

Border region of the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany

Saxony, Germany

Other

Luxembourg

Questions about a new wave of mobilization in Russia by the end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:56 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

11281

OptionProbability

Some people are mobilized before any official claims, reported by media

Regional authorities announce local mobilization measures before national statements

Exit or travel restrictions for mobilization‑eligible citizens are enacted

No new mobilization wave occurs by Dec 31, 2025

President or Defence Minister say a new mobilization wave has started

An official order on a new mobilization wave is published

An official target number for new call‑ups is publicly announced

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

1103

957

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

49.18%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

102

New Eeveelution in Pokémon Gen 10 main-series games?

Dec 3, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

9134

OptionVotes

YES

108

New Wave News

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

What will be true of OpenAI's new compute-intensive offerings? [Add Answers]

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will the paper proposing two big bangs be "confirmed" by EOY 2025?

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

Questions about a new wave of mobilization in Russia by the end of 2025

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

New Eeveelution in Pokémon Gen 10 main-series games?

Latest stories