New Wave News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597859

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

@Quroe

@Celene

Pat Scott @Stralor

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

1458

688

Which Crumbles First? Manifold, or Ayatollah?

Jan 7, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

335529

OptionProbability

Ayatollah

Manifold

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

Sep 3, 1:24 AMSep 3, 1:20 AM

15.42%chance

51663

OptionVotes

YES

2342

427

New wave of mobilization in Russia announced when?

Jul 27, 3:05 PMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

211564

OptionProbability

Before Mar 2027

Before Feb 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?

Jul 28, 6:17 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

10.65%chance

191052

OptionVotes

YES

290

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.85%chance

11976

OptionVotes

YES

1739

575

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

11876

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before May 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

New Eeveelution in Pokémon Gen 10 main-series games?

Dec 3, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.06%chance

16434

OptionVotes

YES

106

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before June 2027

Oct 20, 3:02 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

11219

OptionVotes

YES

173

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

YES

1118

952

New Wave News

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Which Crumbles First? Manifold, or Ayatollah?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

New wave of mobilization in Russia announced when?

Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

New Eeveelution in Pokémon Gen 10 main-series games?

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before June 2027

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

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