New Wave News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6154414

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

Pat Scott @Stralor

@vi

@retr0id

@8my41

@Quroe

@Bandors

@Cy

@Eternal

@astroblob

@zhengkyl

@AlirezaAfshan

@Celene

@AtharvPatil

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

325752

OptionVotes

YES

1335

751

Which Crumbles First? Manifold, or Ayatollah?

Jan 7, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

325512

OptionProbability

Ayatollah

Manifold

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026

Jun 1, 8:52 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

224024

OptionVotes

YES

1940

516

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.48%chance

9866

OptionVotes

YES

1666

600

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

Apr 14, 12:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7579

OptionProbability

Sardinia, Italy

Border region of the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany

Saxony, Germany

Other

Luxembourg

Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?

Jul 28, 6:17 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

20%chance

13520

OptionVotes

YES

200

New wave of mobilization in Russia announced when?

Jul 27, 3:05 PMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

12482

OptionProbability

Before Mar 2027

Before Feb 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Sep 2026

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

YES

1118

952

Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?

Aug 4, 3:18 AMOct 30, 11:59 PM

16.74%chance

6127

OptionVotes

YES

223

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

115

New Wave News

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Prediction markets for New Wave

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Which Crumbles First? Manifold, or Ayatollah?

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?

New wave of mobilization in Russia announced when?

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

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