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Prediction markets for New World Development
OptionProbability
81
16
2
1
3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.
Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
71.69%chance
6620117
OptionVotes
1591
628
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
29.86%chance
10620059
OptionVotes
1854
1251
OptionVotes
9882
101
By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population?
Jul 4, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.35%chance
354871
OptionVotes
1586
925
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.38%chance
424565
OptionVotes
981
837
2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today
Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
18.24%chance
223012
OptionVotes
1725
736
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.86%chance
282754
OptionVotes
1252
794
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?
Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
50.65%chance
7826
OptionVotes
1013
987
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.56%chance
15809
OptionVotes
1266
790
OptionVotes
989
968