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Top stories

Hong Kong Developers Confront 70% Jump in 2026 Bond Maturities

Authors

7

10 months ago

Prediction markets for New World Development

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.96%chance

11227617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

1184

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

809

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.34%chance

302958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1443

689

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.67%chance

211150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

629

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

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