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Prediction markets for New World Fund
Prediction markets for New World Fund
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Aug 5, 8:45 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
1.41%
chance
45
16126
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6043
800
Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?
Jul 15, 7:56 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
80.03%
chance
91
12035
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2562
536
Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?
Jan 22, 3:37 AM
Jan 29, 4:59 AM
29.15%
chance
61
10099
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5753
4784
Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:26 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
20.18%
chance
15
8124
Option
Votes
YES
NO
8398
2142
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
32.07%
chance
34
7402
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1458
688
Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?
Jun 30, 9:21 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
5.98%
chance
28
4400
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3895
413
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
79.08%
chance
38
2747
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1720
680
Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:06 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
67.62%
chance
6
136
Option
Votes
NO
YES
382
213
Will the Global Carbon Reward be realized in a substantial form by 2040?
Feb 9, 10:54 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
26.44%
chance
7
87
Option
Votes
YES
NO
210
145
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