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Prediction markets for New World Fund

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

Aug 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.3%chance

4112609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3823

834

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

22.28%chance

569159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7326

4245

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.08%chance

272539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2156

589

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

79

73

67

65

65

59

50

50

45

45

35

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

Will the Global Carbon Reward be realized in a substantial form by 2040?

Feb 9, 10:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.44%chance

787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

145

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2025?

Jun 6, 4:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Should I launch COINditionner — a crypto token that sends 10% of all revenue to improve the environment in Europe?

Aug 2, 9:05 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

90

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