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Prediction markets for New World Fund

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

Aug 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.78%chance

4113609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4823

813

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.65%chance

272600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2095

599

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

161278

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Economy

Fundamental research

Space Exploration

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Human Rights

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

69

68

63

62

60

56

48

41

41

41

34

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

76.86%chance

15661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2025?

Jun 6, 4:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

Will the Global Carbon Reward be realized in a substantial form by 2040?

Feb 9, 10:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.44%chance

787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

145

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