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Prediction markets for New World Fund

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

Aug 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.41%chance

4516126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6043

800

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

8911423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3621

355

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.15%chance

6110099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5753

4784

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.37%chance

147824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8098

2220

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

272650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

591

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.89%chance

261921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.62%chance

6136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

382

213

Will the Global Carbon Reward be realized in a substantial form by 2040?

Feb 9, 10:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.44%chance

787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

145

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