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Top stories

On Voting Rights Act Anniversary, Democrats Renew Push to Pass John Lewis Act Amid Senate Opposition and Voter Suppression Challenges

US Domestic Policy

On Voting Rights Act Anniversary, Democrats Renew Push to Pass John Lewis Act Amid Senate Opposition and Voter Suppression Challenges

Authors

6

7 months ago

Prediction markets for New York Democrats

How many Democratic representatives will New York elect to the House in 2026?

Jan 9, 6:17 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

54790

OptionProbability

20

21

19

18

17

22-23

15-16

24-26

0-8

9-12

13-14

22

22

15

10

9

8

7

4

1

1

1

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

Will wokeness peak in the United States in the 2020s?

Mar 12, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.07%chance

304116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3912

484

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.68%chance

492390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5270

1565

Who will win the 2029 New York City Democratic mayoral primary?

Jun 25, 1:40 AMJun 24, 10:59 PM

301846

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Am I the creator?

Other

Brad Lander

Andrew Yang

Andrew Cuomo

No one

Santa Claus

78

50

34

10

9

3

1

1

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Democratic nominee for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election

Dec 9, 9:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9822

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul

Ritchie Torres

Alvin Bragg

Andrew Cuomo

Antonio Delgado

Eric Gonzalez

Letitia James

Jumaane Williams

AOC

Other

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Nov 7, 11:04 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

41.68%chance

6683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

845

Chamath prediction: democrats lose one of California or New York by 2032?

Nov 9, 8:00 AMNov 1, 1:59 PM

34.03%chance

8490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Who will win the 2026 New York Democratic Primary for Governor?

Oct 28, 4:46 AMJul 1, 5:46 AM

5385

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul (Current Governor)

Antonio Delgado (Current Lt Governor)

Other

96

3

2

Who will win the 2029 Democratic primary for New York City mayor?

Jan 1, 3:24 AMJun 24, 11:59 AM

4266

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Other

79

21

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