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Prediction markets for New York Mets
OptionProbability
90
90
87
86
84
80
80
72
63
56
51
46
46
44
39
25
24
23
22
20
13
13
8
6
5
5
3
3
2
2
Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?
Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM
48.17%chance
513191
OptionVotes
4413
2269
OptionVotes
2071
483
Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.
Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
76.19%chance
191852
OptionVotes
1010
851
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
16.21%chance
231543
OptionVotes
999
876
Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?
May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.2%chance
131270
OptionVotes
1723
580
[Metaculus] Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?
Nov 2, 12:34 AMJan 2, 5:00 AM
24.78%chance
16533
OptionVotes
199
47
OptionVotes
186
54
Ezra Klein runs for, or is appointed, to a political office by end of 2028
Mar 20, 11:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.61%chance
8341
OptionVotes
232
43
NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"
Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM
65.28%chance
14330
OptionVotes
1002
978
OptionVotes
158
63
Will Luigi Mangione's New York murder case be dismissed?
Aug 15, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.06%chance
15180
OptionVotes
102
98