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Prediction markets for New York Times Company

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

5149902

OptionProbability

Other

$100-110B

$90-100B

$140-150B

$110-120B

$80-90B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$70-80B

$60-70B

$40-50B

$50-60B

<$40B

20

12

10

10

9

8

8

7

6

3

2

2

1

US Govt acquires 5% of Boeing by 6/30/26?

Aug 23, 12:09 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5.04%chance

168052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4379

232

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

392423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

733

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.7%chance

292163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

Apr 8, 2:39 AMApr 8, 4:59 AM

4.69%chance

201080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

916

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.33%chance

9282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

The New York Times will have an article mentioning Herasight by the end of:

Aug 4, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6158

OptionProbability

September 2026

December 2026

March 2026

June 2026

December 2025

September 2025

82

74

66

66

24

15

Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety?

Dec 30, 5:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

82

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