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Prediction markets for New York Times Company

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

83181248

OptionProbability

Other

$210-220B

$220-230B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$270-280B

$170-180B

$180-190B

$190-200B

$200-210B

$260-270B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$150-160B

$160-170B

$130-140B

$140-150B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$120-130B

$40-50B

$50-60B

24

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

US Govt acquires 5% of Boeing by 6/30/26?

Aug 23, 12:09 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

3.73%chance

208796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5123

199

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

363347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

750

Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?

May 9, 11:26 PMAug 9, 11:25 PM

5.55%chance

93125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4125

242

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

432617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

Apr 8, 2:39 AMApr 8, 4:59 AM

4.69%chance

201080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

916

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.11%chance

11357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.2%chance

11274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

The New York Times will have an article mentioning Herasight by the end of:

Aug 4, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6158

OptionProbability

September 2026

December 2026

March 2026

June 2026

December 2025

September 2025

82

74

66

66

24

15

Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety?

Dec 30, 5:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

82

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