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Top stories

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

11 months ago

New York Times Puts Mini Crossword Behind Paywall, Prompting User Backlash and Highlighting Quick Cross Alternative

New York Times Puts Mini Crossword Behind Paywall, Prompting User Backlash and Highlighting Quick Cross Alternative

Authors

5

11 months ago

Pritzker Rejects Trump Threat to Deploy National Guard in Chicago

US Domestic Policy

Pritzker Rejects Trump Threat to Deploy National Guard in Chicago

Authors

13

11 months ago

NYT Says Chinese Consulate Steers New York Elections Through Nonprofits

Authors

6

1 year ago

NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

Authors

5

1 year ago

Klobuchar Presses Congress for NO FAKES Act After Viral Deepfake

Authors

13

1 year ago

Democrats Shed 2.1 Million Voters Since 2020, NYT Analysis Shows

Authors

40

1 year ago

Sarah Jessica Parker Brushes Off Backlash Over ‘And Just Like That’ Finale

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for New York Times

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

37

26

19

18

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Dec 27, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.55%chance

799213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1428

958

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.29%chance

354375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1309

603

Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?

Jul 27, 3:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.31%chance

463582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2941

761

Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.93%chance

263294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1477

892

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.77%chance

91390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

574

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

Apr 8, 2:39 AMApr 8, 4:59 AM

5.26%chance

201291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1821

927

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7738

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

Above 500

66

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6292

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

Above 500

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

63

18

4

3

3

3

3

3

Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety?

Dec 30, 5:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.11%chance

5222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

69

Will the New York Times adopt bounties to make articles publicly accessible by 2030?

Dec 2, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.27%chance

8213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

112

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