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Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.5%chance

8480561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28919

2030

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.8%chance

5223298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

905

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519448

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

86

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 9:59 PMJan 5, 7:59 AM

12.35%chance

5910716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3009

269

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will Fox News settle the Smartmatic lawsuit?

Apr 19, 7:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.34%chance

383487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

988

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.01%chance

261841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

975

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

913

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Dec 14, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.29%chance

7413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

762

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

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