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Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8819859

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

The Rise of China

Bitcoin

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

The Epstein Files

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

65

63

62

57

54

51

51

51

40

21

19

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?

Dec 29, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

122508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.59%chance

122334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2787

359

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.71%chance

271960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

881

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Jan 20, 6:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

82.44%chance

341758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

894

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10107

9894

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

913

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Dec 14, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.22%chance

131134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

865

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM

65.83%chance

5722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

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