OptionVotes
NO
YES
2146
466
1416
706
1038
963
1088
919
OptionProbability
New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo
A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)
Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)
Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo
New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo
Other
33
20
14
11
Catherine Blakespear (Democratic, Incumbent)
55
45
130
77
