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Prediction markets for Next Vision

Will Apple offer a version of the Vision Pro for less than 2500$ in the next ~5 years? (light version counts too)

May 31, 9:40 AMDec 7, 9:59 PM

97.94%chance

5212656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6897

145

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.34%chance

181709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2263

442

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Will the next Apple Vision headset be called the "Vision Air"?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.73%chance

12757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

556

When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?

Dec 24, 8:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9748

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

75

71

66

62

55

35

18

Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Jan 7, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

5392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will the UAE be in the top 10 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2031?

Jul 7, 10:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.49%chance

4360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.16%chance

14134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

972

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

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