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Prediction markets for Next Vision

Will Apple offer a version of the Vision Pro for less than 2500$ in the next ~5 years? (light version counts too)

May 31, 9:40 AMDec 7, 9:59 PM

97.94%chance

5212656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6897

145

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.33%chance

222398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2946

339

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?

Dec 24, 8:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13873

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

75

71

66

62

55

50

30

Will the next Apple Vision headset be called the "Vision Air"?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.73%chance

12757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

556

Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Jan 7, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

5392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will the UAE be in the top 10 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2031?

Jul 7, 10:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.49%chance

4360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

17233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

990

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

282

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

Other

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

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