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Prediction markets for Next Vision

Will Apple offer a version of the Vision Pro for less than 2500$ in the next ~5 years? (light version counts too)

May 31, 9:40 AMDec 7, 9:59 PM

97.96%chance

5312696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6937

144

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.88%chance

275891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4975

201

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

152009

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

44

30

27

26

26

26

26

23

When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?

Dec 24, 8:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

141386

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

78

76

68

62

55

50

5

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Will the next Apple Vision headset be called the "Vision Air"?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

12857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

656

Will the UAE be in the top 10 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2031?

Jul 7, 10:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.75%chance

5560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

975

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

17233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

990

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

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