OptionVotes
YES
NO
65171
533
1542
648
2102
476
1051
957
297
34
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Other
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
31
30
9
317
90
132
76
100
110
91