OptionVotes
YES
NO
50207
800
1142
875
1780
562
1051
957
248
40
317
90
132
76
197
51
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Other
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
33
32
24
12
186
120
100