OptionVotes
YES
NO
55171
691
1142
875
2130
470
1051
957
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Other
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
31
30
9
317
90
132
76
197
51
186
120
100
110
91