NGO News

Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.36%chance

13239157

OptionVotes

YES

1668

485

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Jun 2, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

9435177

OptionVotes

YES

3428

757

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

YES

1066

868

Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems

Mar 28, 10:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.45%chance

292568

OptionVotes

YES

2350

853

Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 10:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

192091

OptionVotes

YES

2792

686

When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?

Jan 18, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

411576

OptionProbability

2027-2029

2030-2032

2024-2026

2033-2035

2036-2038

Other

Does the pivotal act that Yudkowsky had in mind involve the bioengineering of a contagious disease?

Jun 6, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

7189

OptionVotes

YES

298

107

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Jan 10, 3:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3171

OptionProbability

I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

Will we have 20+ this year?

Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

Will we meet in the library at least once?

Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

100

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Apr 1, 10:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.16%chance

4109

OptionVotes

YES

240

113

Wikipedia article on Richard ngo by EOY2027

Jan 26, 5:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

397

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will "Contra Ngo et al. “Every ‘Every Bay Area Hous..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.78%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will Richard ngo have a family by 2035

Jan 22, 10:24 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

NGO News

Prediction markets for NGO

Prediction markets for NGO

Prediction markets for NGO

Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems

Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025

When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?

Does the pivotal act that Yudkowsky had in mind involve the bioengineering of a contagious disease?

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Wikipedia article on Richard ngo by EOY2027

Will "Contra Ngo et al. “Every ‘Every Bay Area Hous..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Richard ngo have a family by 2035

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