NIST News

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.69%chance

9391230

OptionVotes

YES

88682

36230

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?

Aug 2, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

71127

OptionVotes

YES

978

102

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

Significant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026

Nov 19, 9:38 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

9.11%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

283

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

YES

307

Significant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:04 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

3162

OptionVotes

YES

210

Significant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:05 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

8.53%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

230

Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:03 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

11.39%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard before 2035?

Oct 16, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.27%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?

Aug 5, 11:11 PMMay 3, 5:59 AM

65.04%chance

1076

OptionVotes

YES

194

135

Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years?

Apr 9, 7:17 PMApr 17, 4:59 AM

47.09%chance

OptionVotes

YES

106

NIST News

Prediction markets for NIST

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Q-Day before 2030?

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Significant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Significant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026

Significant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026

Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard before 2035?

Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?

Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years?

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