NIST News

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.61%chance

9391489

OptionVotes

YES

88977

36167

Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?

Oct 8, 7:45 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

4.29%chance

256266

OptionVotes

YES

4723

212

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Mar 27, 1:11 PMDec 31, 2:09 PM

2.45%chance

312370

OptionVotes

YES

630

Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?

May 16, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.14%chance

281544

OptionVotes

YES

499

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?

Aug 2, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

71127

OptionVotes

YES

978

102

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.26%chance

6447

OptionVotes

YES

507

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard before 2035?

Oct 16, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.27%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?

Aug 5, 11:11 PMMay 3, 5:59 AM

65.04%chance

1076

OptionVotes

YES

194

135

Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years?

Apr 9, 7:17 PMApr 17, 4:59 AM

47.09%chance

OptionVotes

YES

106

Had OpenAI already practically broken ECDLP by October 8, 2026? (confirmed by end-2027)

Oct 8, 3:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.95%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

100

NIST News

Prediction markets for NIST

Prediction markets for NIST

Prediction markets for NIST

Q-Day before 2030?

Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard before 2035?

Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?

Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years?

Had OpenAI already practically broken ECDLP by October 8, 2026? (confirmed by end-2027)

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