NIST News

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.31%chance

163092

OptionVotes

YES

3237

737

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

YES

320

247

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

Post-quantum crypto standard FIPS 206 drafted before 2026?

Sep 25, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.25%chance

4167

OptionVotes

YES

109

Significant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026

Nov 19, 9:38 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

4135

OptionVotes

YES

183

In which quarter will NIST publish AI "red team" standards?

Oct 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5121

OptionProbability

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Other

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q3 2023

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard before 2035?

Oct 16, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.27%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?

Aug 5, 11:11 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

65.43%chance

975

OptionVotes

YES

196

134

Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:03 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

34.15%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

Significant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:05 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years?

Apr 9, 7:17 PMApr 17, 4:59 AM

47.09%chance

OptionVotes

YES

106

NIST News

Prediction markets for NIST

Prediction markets for NIST

Prediction markets for NIST

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Post-quantum crypto standard FIPS 206 drafted before 2026?

Significant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026

In which quarter will NIST publish AI "red team" standards?

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard before 2035?

Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?

Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026

Significant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026

Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years?

Latest stories