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Top stories

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Signals Expansion, Geographic Realignment, Postseason Changes, and Nashville’s Franchise Bid

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Signals Expansion, Geographic Realignment, Postseason Changes, and Nashville’s Franchise Bid

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for NL

Who will win 2026 MLB NLCS? ⚾ (National League Championship Series)

Oct 27, 6:18 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

117634

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Dodgers

Other

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

Cincinnati Reds

New York Mets

40

18

13

11

9

4

3

1

1

1

Who will win 2026 MLB NLCS? ⚾ (National League Championship Series)

Oct 26, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52098

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Dodgers

Other

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Mets

30

22

15

13

9

3

3

2

2

2

Which 2 teams will be in 2026 World Series?

Aug 2, 7:18 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

71764

OptionProbability

Other

Dodgers and Yankees

Dodgers and Red Sox

Dodgers and Tampa Bay

Any other NL team other than Dodgers and any AL team

Dodgers and Orioles

Dodgers and Astros

Phillies and Yankees

Braves and Yankees

Dodgers and Blue Jays

Phillies and Red Sox

Padres and Yankees

Braves and Astros

Padres and Orioles

23

12

9

6

6

6

6

6

6

4

4

4

3

3

How many games will the Pittsburgh Pirates win in the 2026 regular season?

Mar 26, 2:55 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

31521

OptionProbability

70 - 75

76 - 81

82 - 87

88 - 93

94 - 100

Below 70

Above 100

26

18

13

12

12

10

9

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

51%chance

6799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will the New York Mets finish the 2026 regular season with a better record than 2025 NL East Champion?

Jan 27, 2:35 AMOct 5, 11:59 PM

7.72%chance

7275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

346

29

Will the Dodgers finish the season with the best record in baseball (including a tie)?

Jun 27, 12:43 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

44.03%chance

571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

91

In 2030, where will Irish electricity prices rank among comparable countries [AU, FI, DK, IE, NL, EE, GB, CH, SG]?

Apr 10, 8:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

110

will there be a DOOM monster modeled after the NLRP3 inflammasome by 2055?

Jun 30, 12:16 PM

10

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

60

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