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Prediction markets for No Limit Holdings

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7386

3139

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.72%chance

17742411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7301

1020

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8514881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

8759

Will Switzerland pass the referendum 'No to a 10 Million Switzerland'?

Feb 12, 12:49 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

32.8%chance

242098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

699

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

51%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

950

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.37%chance

13260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

922

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

1037

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

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