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Prediction markets for No Limit Holdings

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

788397421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5430

3850

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.72%chance

17742411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7301

1020

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.12%chance

8915182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

184826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

9421

If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

38.63%chance

243190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6280

5331

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

51.14%chance

141756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

977

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

53.59%chance

15676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

977

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

May 31, 12:54 AMJan 2, 1:47 AM

30.53%chance

7603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

663

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

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