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Prediction markets for No Limit Holdings

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40.99%chance

556181757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2688

2043

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.6%chance

17541407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7357

1014

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will LGBTQ+ content online be legally censored in the US before 2026?

Jan 30, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.76%chance

363904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

Jun 10, 2:03 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM

58%chance

223202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Aug 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.7%chance

14598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

897

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

54.9%chance

12266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

953

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.37%chance

13260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

922

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

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