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Prediction markets for Nominal

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM

37.29%chance

190100191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12455

8168

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

16.8%chance

10518606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1958

957

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13307

8366

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

13.51%chance

103256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3505

787

Will Democrats nominate someone who's never run for office before for president in 2028?

Feb 7, 8:07 PMSep 1, 4:59 AM

19.61%chance

243123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

Will the Democratic Party nominate a female presidential candidate in the 2028 US Presidential elections?

Nov 6, 1:59 PMAug 30, 8:59 PM

29%chance

252864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1582

646

Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?

May 26, 1:54 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

54.93%chance

281290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1264

701

Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

Mar 7, 5:55 AMApr 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

8278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

953

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will the 2028 Democratic convention need more than one ballot to nominate a president?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMSep 30, 12:00 PM

6%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Will the 2028 Republican convention need more than one ballot to nominate a president?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMSep 30, 12:00 PM

3%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

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