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Nominal News

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

15666478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11164

9021

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

12.16%chance

10518506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2557

857

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3214664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13282

8380

Will Democrats nominate someone who's never run for office before for president in 2028?

Feb 7, 8:07 PMSep 1, 4:59 AM

19.61%chance

243123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

Will the Democratic Party nominate a female presidential candidate in the 2028 US Presidential elections?

Nov 6, 1:59 PMAug 30, 8:59 PM

26.53%chance

242825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1683

608

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

33.75%chance

91338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

1278

China's nominal GDP exceeds EU's in 2027?

Apr 20, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.36%chance

12840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

Mar 27, 6:17 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

41.57%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

When Taiwan moves from the 21st position on the UN nominal GDP measure, it will move up.

Jul 27, 7:43 PMJul 4, 3:59 AM

74.75%chance

13324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

924

Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

Mar 7, 5:55 AMApr 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

8278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

953

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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