Non News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Non
Will OpenAI abandon their non-profit structure by the end of 2025?
Mar 9, 3:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.07%chance
10529408
OptionVotes
1138
508
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)
Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.98%chance
1923681
OptionVotes
22111
4523
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.34%chance
1086968
OptionVotes
1899
962
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
28.93%chance
723463
OptionVotes
1251
1187
Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?
Apr 24, 11:45 AMSep 9, 3:59 AM
33.32%chance
241996
OptionVotes
2718
1516
Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?
Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15%chance
61549
OptionVotes
2380
420
Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?
Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.62%chance
211354
OptionVotes
1330
561
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
48.71%chance
121255
OptionVotes
10481
9520
OptionVotes
100
100
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
66%chance
20570
OptionVotes
1069
792
Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?
Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
32.23%chance
135490
OptionVotes
2106
1843