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Prediction markets for Nonfarm Payroll

Will June 2026 U.S. average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 7, 7:16 PMJul 2, 12:25 PM

60.73%chance

6137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

90

Will June 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 7, 7:13 AMJul 2, 12:25 PM

51.8%chance

8126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?

Jun 15, 11:14 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

37.2%chance

563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

65

Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jun 15, 8:53 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

26%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

86

Will the June 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?

Jun 7, 9:03 PMJul 2, 12:25 PM

55.16%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

91

Will the June 2026 U.S. labor force participation rate be at least 62.0%?

Jun 7, 6:14 PMJul 2, 12:25 PM

46.58%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

66

Will July 2026 U.S. average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 15, 9:16 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

48.47%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

87

How many jobs will the U.S. have at the end of 2030?

Jun 9, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

529

OptionProbability

160M-163M

Below 157M

157M-160M

163M-166M

Above 166M

28

26

16

15

15

Will the July 2026 U.S. labor force participation rate be at least 62.0%?

Jun 15, 10:16 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

29.03%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

96

Will July 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

45%chance

16

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 17, 12:16 PMSep 4, 12:25 PM

50.04%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jun 17, 4:13 PMSep 4, 12:25 PM

33.64%chance

14

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

98

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