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Prediction markets for Normal Computing

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?

Nov 6, 5:24 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

285020

OptionProbability

No

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

70

29

2

Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.27%chance

384406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

838

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.67%chance

334369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

957

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

21885

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Judges < 2040

Teacher < 2040

53

45

36

36

35

34

28

28

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.66%chance

33632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

960

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Compute ratio for SOTA model training workloads by hardware architecture by EOY 2028

Feb 18, 2:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

Custom ASIC

GPU/CPU

FPGA (Reprogrammable ASIC)

59

20

20

Will a practically useful cryptographic program obfuscation scheme be invented before 2035?

Feb 23, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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