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Prediction markets for Normal Computing

Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?

Nov 6, 5:24 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

264841

OptionProbability

No

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

79

20

2

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.08%chance

324166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

935

Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.45%chance

283516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

824

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

19800

OptionProbability

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Teacher < 2040

Judges < 2040

55

53

37

35

34

33

33

28

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.9%chance

32607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

984

By what date will encoded reasoning via steganography be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:14 AMJan 1, 12:13 PM

2362

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

52

50

48

43

40

38

35

32

3

How well can a superintelligence predict a coin flip?

Dec 10, 11:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6337

OptionProbability

Single person

Different people

21

4

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

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