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Prediction markets for Normal Computing

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?

Nov 6, 5:24 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

346234

OptionProbability

No

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

66

33

1

Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.83%chance

425172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

837

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.03%chance

354737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

878

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

19887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

970

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.66%chance

33632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

960

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

By what date will encoded reasoning via steganography be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:14 AMJan 1, 12:13 PM

2362

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

52

50

48

43

40

38

35

32

0

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will a practically useful cryptographic program obfuscation scheme be invented before 2035?

Feb 23, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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