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Prediction markets for Normal Computing

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.81%chance

7114963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14853

6733

Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.8%chance

425222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.5%chance

364950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

928

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.8%chance

201061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

subvocal communication will be a thing by the end of the decade

Oct 30, 8:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.97%chance

61057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

623

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.66%chance

33632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

960

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

By what date will encoded reasoning via steganography be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:14 AMJan 1, 12:13 PM

2362

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

52

50

48

43

40

38

35

32

0

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Group relative rewards in RL (e.g. GRPO) teaches AIs to be spiteful, in publication by EOY 2027.

Sep 27, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

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