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Top stories

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Authors

4

5 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Trump Says Future U.S. Security Guarantees Could Be Delivered ‘By Air’ Outside NATO

Authors

6

6 months ago

Prediction markets for North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Mar 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.52%chance

564623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

63

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

56

54

54

49

44

43

40

36

34

17

Will any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

Sep 10, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.44%chance

61104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

793

13

Spain removed from NATO by 2027?

Oct 11, 12:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.18%chance

5496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

26

What is the next country to leave NATO?

Nov 12, 3:14 PMNov 19, 10:59 PM

23460

OptionProbability

United States

Other

Hungary

France

Turkey

Slovakia

34

29

11

11

9

6

NATO stocks (Permanent)

Nov 27, 11:09 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10312

OptionProbability

NO

YES

335

150

NATO dissolves by 2028

Jan 6, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.59%chance

7211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

63

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