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Top stories

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Authors

4

8 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Trump Says Future U.S. Security Guarantees Could Be Delivered ‘By Air’ Outside NATO

Authors

6

9 months ago

Prediction markets for North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Mar 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.19%chance

717343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

70

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

56

54

54

49

44

43

40

36

34

17

Will any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

Sep 10, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.66%chance

101128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

384

26

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Apr 6, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.97%chance

61120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

67

What is the next country to leave NATO?

Nov 12, 3:14 PMNov 19, 10:59 PM

23620

OptionProbability

Other

United States

Hungary

France

Turkey

Slovakia

31

23

14

13

10

8

Spain removed from NATO by 2027?

Oct 11, 12:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.62%chance

6516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

410

24

NATO stocks (Permanent)

Nov 27, 11:09 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10312

OptionProbability

NO

YES

335

150

NATO dissolves by 2028

Jan 6, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

8221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

73

Will the government of a European country propose to withdraw from NATO before August 1, 2026?

Apr 7, 11:50 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

15.64%chance

6201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

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