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Prediction markets for North Korea

If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?

Nov 1, 11:55 PMNov 8, 11:59 PM

95%chance

224436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3398

713

Will North Korea join BRICS before 2030?

Oct 30, 12:09 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.46%chance

153846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4628

216

Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?

Sep 17, 4:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.6%chance

293623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

941

Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2035?

Oct 18, 6:57 AMOct 26, 3:59 AM

22.83%chance

373586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

878

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Dec 28, 1:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.27%chance

322781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

894

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032

Sep 15, 11:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

6.82%chance

181601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2100

848

Will Kim Jong Un stop being the leader of North Korea before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?

Dec 18, 1:51 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

11.24%chance

141559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

724

Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?

Mar 31, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.55%chance

231274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

933

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

30.44%chance

15681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

940

Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?

Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.6%chance

6235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

983

Will "Having OCD is like living in North Korea (Her..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 10:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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