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Prediction markets for Northern Data

Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?

Aug 24, 5:28 PMOct 1, 4:00 PM

71607

OptionProbability

Below 4.6 million km²

Below 4.5 million km²

Below 4.4 million km²

Below 4.3 million km²

Below 4.2 million km²

Below 4.0 million km²

Below 3.8 million km²

99

5

2

1

1

1

1

Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 26, 5:33 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

80.16%chance

261218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

896

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?

Mar 31, 4:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.08%chance

2130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

When will waymo come to Chicago

Mar 28, 4:04 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

398

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later

2026

33

29

15

15

8

Will the world become more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Oct 30, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

76.76%chance

776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

93

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