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Prediction markets for Notable

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will there be a notable book-burning event on a US college campus before 2030?

Dec 13, 8:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.22%chance

462918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

889

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

45.16%chance

61220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11020

9075

Will "avatarism" become a significantly notable movement by 2030?

Jun 6, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.27%chance

31950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

902

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?

Feb 19, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.44%chance

15440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

98

Will any notable lost art be recovered by the end of 2029?

Sep 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.28%chance

15377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

974

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Nov 4, 1:59 PMSep 10, 12:18 PM

24.66%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will "Notable Progress Has Been Made in Whole Brain..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 5, 10:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?

Feb 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.77%chance

8235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

127

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

Will anyone notable in the longevity community dress up FULL OF MICROPLASTICS for Halloween?

Aug 28, 3:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

80

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