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Prediction markets for Notable

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

34

32

20

14

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6318985

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

53

40

4

3

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will there be a notable book-burning event on a US college campus before 2030?

Dec 13, 8:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.22%chance

462918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

889

Will "avatarism" become a significantly notable movement by 2030?

Jun 6, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.27%chance

31950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

902

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?

Feb 19, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

14430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

101

Will any notable lost art be recovered by the end of 2029?

Sep 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.28%chance

15377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

974

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Nov 4, 1:59 PMSep 10, 12:18 PM

24.66%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will "Notable Progress Has Been Made in Whole Brain..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 5, 10:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?

Feb 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.77%chance

8235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

127

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

Will anyone notable in the longevity community dress up FULL OF MICROPLASTICS for Halloween?

Aug 28, 3:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

80

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