OptionVotes
YES
NO
2735
366
351
28
OptionProbability
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
56
55
50
44
42
37
1149
889
1461
938
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
47
46
45
110
97
100