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Prediction markets for Novelis

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

12754708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1679

1079

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.57%chance

16940406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

1004

Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?

Jan 23, 1:09 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

17%chance

11834841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

453

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

14725584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8788

5752

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

5.35%chance

4223951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12072

3862

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.01%chance

9322087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

955

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

58.98%chance

1815655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11994

8342

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.12%chance

1211085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18565

6494

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

503

Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.23%chance

261885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

533

Will Elon Musk endorse a Democrat for president in the next decade? (by November 2034)

Nov 13, 7:28 PMNov 14, 4:59 AM

49.04%chance

15786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

981

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