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Prediction markets for Novelis

US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market

May 13, 4:10 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

1568440

OptionProbability

Connie Chan advances; Scott Wiener wins

Connie Chan advances; Connie Chan wins

Saikat Chakrabarti advances; Scott Wiener wins

Saikat Chakrabarti advances; Saikat Chakrabarti wins

65

34

1

0

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.7%chance

12754758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

1129

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17243865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?

Jan 23, 1:09 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

15.92%chance

12035126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

435

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

4.59%chance

4327858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13851

3770

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.84%chance

14826834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7430

6053

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.54%chance

9322117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

985

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?

May 16, 8:15 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

97.17%chance

348690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4841

94

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

58.12%chance

113096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2211

1833

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