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Prediction markets for Novelis

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87%chance

12453779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

1581

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1135

Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?

Jan 23, 1:09 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

20%chance

11734662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2001

500

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

14725584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8788

5752

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

5.44%chance

3822185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11398

3372

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

9121514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

718

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15910

7208

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

53.8%chance

94548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10795

9269

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.53%chance

422182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

694

Peggy Flanagan and Graham Platner both elected senators in November 2026?

Feb 5, 12:33 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

50%chance

5663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

784

Democratic House Speaker before 30 November 2026?

Feb 1, 11:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

19.04%chance

6611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

483

100

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