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Top stories

Trump Presses Hall of Fame to Add Roger Clemens

Trump Presses Hall of Fame to Add Roger Clemens

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for NOW

5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"

Mar 27, 5:41 AMMar 28, 4:59 AM

90.45%chance

39353654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2967

1417

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

93.18%chance

8926048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9311

4632

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

57.72%chance

828320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12630

9632

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

315554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

761

Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030

Oct 16, 12:57 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

23.45%chance

464905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1790

331

Will the world look shockingly similar in 5 years from now (2030)?

Dec 30, 12:23 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

53.67%chance

383834

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

929

Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM

52.96%chance

6980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

35.04%chance

8968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2579

1361

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Feb 21, 9:22 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

71.42%chance

33889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

943

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

59.17%chance

10666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.27%chance

24501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

892

Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:49 AMAug 6, 12:48 AM

32.23%chance

4450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

690

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