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Prediction markets for NS

What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?

Sep 9, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

9611736

OptionProbability

Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027

OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028

Odd perfect numbers by EoY 2027.

≥4 Millenniums by Feb 2027

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture solved by EoY 2026

ABC Conjecture by May 2027

Yang-Mills existence and mass gap solved by May 2027

RH solved by June 2027

Goldbach conjecture solved by May 2027

≥6 Millennium by EoY 2027

Collatz by EoY 2027

P vs NP by EoY 2027

Twin Prime conjecture solved by EoY 2026

The entire pre-2026 mathematical edifice is considered solved by EoY 2029

74

59

36

35

33

33

28

22

22

21

18

10

10

6

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

Aug 13, 7:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.89%chance

698479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

810

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Aug 13, 7:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.46%chance

666316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1988

621

Will Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028?

Jul 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.1%chance

44220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4962

202

Where will Hunter place at NSB?

Mar 28, 6:38 PMDec 31, 7:38 PM

61327

OptionProbability

Top 24

Not make DE

Top 32

Top 16

Top 12

Top 8

Top 6

Top 4

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

247

How many seats will One Nation win in the 2027 NSW state election.

May 4, 1:31 AMMar 26, 11:59 PM

3259

OptionProbability

4+

2

0

3

1

61

11

10

10

9

China to convict foreigner under NSL before end of 2026?

Aug 1, 9:43 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

33.02%chance

10230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

314

128

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?

Mar 14, 11:03 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

19.74%chance

8197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

109

Will Nord Stream resume operations by 2030?

Oct 6, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.78%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will there be a first female director of the FBI before the NSA?

Apr 1, 5:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.83%chance

460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

155

What will be the next major event for NSO group?

Feb 6, 3:12 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

460

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

IPO

None of these by 2030

65

12

11

11

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