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Prediction markets for NS

What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?

Sep 9, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10714244

OptionProbability

Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027

OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028

≥4 Millenniums by Feb 2027

ABC Conjecture by May 2027

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture solved by EoY 2026

Odd perfect numbers by EoY 2027.

Yang-Mills existence and mass gap solved by May 2027

RH solved by June 2027

Goldbach conjecture solved by May 2027

≥6 Millennium by EoY 2027

Collatz by EoY 2027

Twin Prime conjecture solved by EoY 2026

P vs NP by EoY 2027

The entire pre-2026 mathematical edifice is considered solved by EoY 2029

72

59

50

46

38

37

36

30

25

22

14

13

11

6

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

Aug 13, 7:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.89%chance

698479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

810

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Aug 13, 7:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.46%chance

666316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1988

621

Where will Hunter place at NSB?

Mar 28, 6:38 PMDec 31, 7:38 PM

71328

OptionProbability

Top 24

Not make DE

Top 32

Top 16

Top 12

Top 8

Top 6

Top 4

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

247

China to convict foreigner under NSL before end of 2026?

Aug 1, 9:43 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

26.88%chance

14307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

109

How many seats will One Nation win in the 2027 NSW state election.

May 4, 1:31 AMMar 26, 11:59 PM

3259

OptionProbability

4+

2

0

3

1

61

11

10

10

9

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?

Mar 14, 11:03 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

19.74%chance

8197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

109

Will Nord Stream resume operations by 2030?

Oct 6, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.07%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will there be a first female director of the FBI before the NSA?

Apr 1, 5:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.83%chance

460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

155

What will be the next major event for NSO group?

Feb 6, 3:12 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

460

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

IPO

None of these by 2030

65

12

11

11

Arctic sea ice extent on Nov 20, 2026 (NSIDC daily value)?

Oct 22, 8:56 PMNov 19, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 9.5 million km²

9.5 to under 9.9

9.9 to under 10.3

10.3 million km² or above

25

25

25

25

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