NS News

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.27%chance

1517376

OptionVotes

YES

1754

546

What was true of the August 7 Indie World?

Aug 5, 1:37 PMDec 7, 3:00 PM

1615694

OptionProbability

UFO 50 mentioned

T-rated game mentioned

M-rated game mentioned

Mouse Work more info or release date announced

Mysplaced port for NS or NS2 announced

Silksong mentioned

Gamefreak mentioned

Homestuck-franchise mentioned

Switch 2 version of existing Switch 1 game announced

Deltarune chapter 5 info / release date announced

100

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

Aug 13, 7:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80%chance

636356

OptionVotes

YES

1028

688

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Aug 13, 7:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.87%chance

614907

OptionVotes

YES

1395

778

How many seats will Pieter Omtzigt's NSC have in the Dutch House of Representatives after the next general election?

Nov 25, 1:31 PMDec 2, 10:59 PM

91034

OptionProbability

At least 1

At least 5

At least 10

At least 15

At least 25

At least 20

At least 30

At least 35

NSC wins seats in 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 4, 8:08 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.94%chance

8597

OptionVotes

YES

285

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

YES

320

247

NSF awards a CAREER grant this year?

May 13, 9:06 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

44.14%chance

4391

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

What will be the NSF's total loss from grants cut at the end of 2025?

Aug 6, 6:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3345

What will I believe is the most important publicly available video on the internet at the end of 2025?

Mar 31, 1:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3216

OptionProbability

Jamie Joyce on Win Win - https://youtu.be/HzxW3a9jAxE?si=qc_WKI3SMHQ_Cuox

Daniel Hillis on CYC - https://youtu.be/pIB2eK8s3gY?si=UTjc-JZMSPW7rtTZ

Doug Lenat on Lex Fridman - https://youtu.be/3wMKoSRbGVs?si=fE9ZkPwf1uXim25x

Daniel Sheehan's full lecture on JFK - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh44w4o6Z6gNqtgU4bea5PqP&si=_Ukh8ikh1A-xGlqv

Daniel Sheehan's full lecture on the Trajectory of Justice - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh5EM3OE4417e3yiTyndRR6a&si=ndk8qQ3axlNWvED1

Daniel Sheehan's full lecture on the Rulers of the Realm - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh5ZR8exn0lKoCjC3ayShvdd&si=4Qq2X8VSd3qOV-2H

Harald Malmgen's last interview - https://youtu.be/09KP8XVf5nY?si=cha9AxnZ_tgddbH1

Jack Kruse warning the world. https://youtu.be/TcbuqQd57rY?si=js0glFwJlINCmW9S

Steven Greer warning the world - https://youtu.be/areO7Mej44E?si=l1ijhgQYP2cTfWIL

Nate Soares warning the world - https://youtu.be/3Sn0stHiNh4?si=YLfGAHOC6X73quUh

Other

Balaji’s Network State Conference https://youtu.be/VqIJI8fW4PI?si=T_GKH0rG2xZPSp3Z

Robert Epstein on Rogan - https://youtu.be/Azu8XnZdxeA?si=JNHKPyLbbFZhKCX_

Chris Ramsey and Chris Bledsoe - https://youtu.be/vQqErgnc_3g?si=2GCO4l28iuXz0RYv

Foom Debate - https://youtu.be/m_R5Z4_khNw?si=i1LoqsAZsi8e5BJE

Emergence with Danny Hillis - https://youtu.be/4Bm6A_BxMgU?si=OPnsbVIf4FHmg-D-

Futarchy with Robin Hanson - https://youtu.be/PRog7R37MA0?si=D94xQFDRci-ZlbkH

Museum of Tarot - https://youtu.be/I7CPUNSlXKs?si=Kbw_GPsG0W-9i7TZ

Ben Goertzle on AGI - https://youtu.be/I0bsd-4TWZE?si=jJAZv3hIg0-6_XaK

Catherine Fitts - https://youtu.be/piDqTbBwWRM?si=U4bp7-nQ5mP-cSvI

Adam M. Curry - https://youtu.be/RvPPk28kw4U?si=iE01rljcdMfq8Yw5

Suchir Balaji’s mother - https://youtu.be/Kev_-HyuI9Y?si=StvA3KLr7tu0DCRP

Daniel Hillis - https://youtu.be/k8mX_prIllI?si=w5CM825HuONG8Fgp

Balaji Srinivasan talking about NS - https://youtu.be/sdALxUub5Eo?si=vjchl6-XoQjrjPZL

Terence McKenna - https://youtu.be/j0j6aI764OQ?si=RWMpK0o-LqA2bwYs

Balaji and Vitalik - https://youtu.be/43sSweq86ZA?si=NA5fbBrMS-IJAnVS

Gavin McInnes on Danny Jones - https://youtu.be/vj7R0nNLBkk?si=Kc8sk29qsI5tzsar

Joe McMoneagle - https://youtu.be/SvpkfMGgUGI?si=c6pNdp9QYaSXuOrE

Lei on Danny Jones - https://youtu.be/m2m7_Iqd5to?si=SvUOkrs5oRCQ9gLM

Charles Hoskinson on Shawn Ryan - https://youtu.be/_DZgdAUGXug?si=5-PX3SObOXMIihZq

Robert Salas on Jesse Michels- https://youtu.be/-0g3lLGxNfc?si=PlR4bWjM0vX8M0gW

John Kiriakou on Danny Jones - https://youtu.be/HStqERfZbPw?si=xzwrtzF-G_il9oU9

Danny Jones on Rogan - https://youtu.be/89IEFOiW-Z0?si=SKQ9ZsKQGUCTISSt

Jesse Michels on Rogan - https://youtu.be/r9Ldl70x5Fg?si=H9llQUlsdfUgSsTA

Daniel Sheehan Disclosing Aliens at Yale https://youtu.be/T7ghLflxPs8?si=-WBNIDT9bMa2GbCP

Eliezer Yudkowsky warning the world. https://youtu.be/Yd0yQ9yxSYY?si=8aodS25PDsnLVZAo

The Sol Forum - https://www.youtube.com/live/wRkz4jqwIgw?si=OMq511GjyLJ3Gbi7

Dan Faggela and Michael Levin - https://youtu.be/DmKafur28S8?si=hR_k_GQR2s69-GUl

Curt Jaimungal and Leonard Susskind - https://youtu.be/2p_Hlm6aCok?si=8vJ91KDxMa_rS7Kj

Buga Sphere Press Conference - https://youtu.be/Glu2mjX0cnI?si=G4sV1AEeqBHNBaJ2

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 exceed 8.9 billion?

May 5, 5:14 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

23.58%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

180

Will FY2025 US NSF funding (in trillions) be lower than FY2019 NSF funding?

Mar 27, 11:10 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

NS News

Prediction markets for NS

Prediction markets for NS

Prediction markets for NS

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

What was true of the August 7 Indie World?

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

How many seats will Pieter Omtzigt's NSC have in the Dutch House of Representatives after the next general election?

NSC wins seats in 2025 Dutch Elections?

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

NSF awards a CAREER grant this year?

What will be the NSF's total loss from grants cut at the end of 2025?

What will I believe is the most important publicly available video on the internet at the end of 2025?

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 exceed 8.9 billion?

Will FY2025 US NSF funding (in trillions) be lower than FY2019 NSF funding?

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