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Prediction markets for NS

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.36%chance

1817866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

459

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

Aug 13, 7:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80%chance

636356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

688

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Aug 13, 7:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.87%chance

614907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

778

How many NSF grants will have been cut at the end of 2025?

Aug 6, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3949

OptionProbability

Below 2686

2686 - 3199

3200 - 3713

3714 - 4227

4228 - 4741

4742 - 5255

5256 - 5769

5770 - 6000

Above 6000

92

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

247

for fiscal year 2025, Canadian NSERC grants to total to at least 10% of total US NSF grant budget?"

Mar 23, 11:20 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

47.56%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?

Mar 14, 11:03 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

25%chance

8147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

123

China to convict foreigner under NSL before end of 2026?

Aug 1, 9:43 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

58.82%chance

8110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

185

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 exceed 8.9 billion?

May 5, 5:14 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

23.58%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Will there be a first female director of the FBI before the NSA?

Apr 1, 5:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.83%chance

460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

155

What will be the next major event for NSO group?

Feb 6, 3:12 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

460

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

IPO

None of these by 2030

65

12

11

11

Will Register NSFAS Application?

Feb 24, 8:44 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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