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Prediction markets for NSF

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.27%chance

1517376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

546

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

Aug 13, 7:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80%chance

636356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

688

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Aug 13, 7:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.87%chance

614907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

778

Will independent analysis confirm the GOP's report that 10%-27% of NSF grants now prioritize DEI-related qualities?

Oct 10, 8:18 PMOct 11, 3:59 AM

161065

OptionProbability

Yes, >10% (2021-2024) and >25% (Jan-Apr '24)

Yes, >10% (2021-2024) but not >25% (Jan-Apr '24)

No, reanalysis will not show this

Reanalysis will never happen

76

50

47

42

NSF awards a CAREER grant this year?

May 13, 9:06 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

44.14%chance

4391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

[Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"

Mar 24, 1:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7131

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2029

By 2028

By 2027

By 2026

77

70

59

48

34

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 exceed 8.9 billion?

May 5, 5:14 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

23.58%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

for fiscal year 2025, Canadian NSERC grants to total to at least 10% of total US NSF grant budget?"

Mar 23, 11:20 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

47.56%chance

217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will FY2025 US NSF funding (in trillions) be lower than FY2019 NSF funding?

Mar 27, 11:10 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Register NSFAS Application?

Feb 24, 8:44 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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