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Prediction markets for NSF

By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?

Aug 13, 7:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80%chance

636356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

688

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Aug 13, 7:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.53%chance

645581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

846

Will the US government announce new funding (> $100M) for quantum initiatives within the next 2 months?

Jan 30, 10:43 PMApr 1, 10:39 PM

15.04%chance

26624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will the NSF send offer letters for the 2026-2027 MSPRF by March 24?

Mar 18, 4:38 AMMar 23, 11:59 PM

33.28%chance

5584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

706

[Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"

Mar 24, 1:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7221

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2029

By 2028

By 2027

By 2026

77

70

59

42

8

Will I be awarded the NSF GRFP this year?

Mar 5, 9:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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