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Prediction markets for NT

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

Feb 11, 12:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

83.99%chance

11117100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

916

713

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?

May 31, 7:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

266576

OptionProbability

98-100

94-96

96-98

68-70

70-72

72-74

74-76

76-78

78-80

80-82

82-84

84-86

86-88

88-90

90-92

92-94

66-68

0-2

2-4

4-6

6-8

8-10

10-12

12-14

14-16

16-18

18-20

20-22

22-24

24-26

26-28

28-30

30-32

32-34

34-36

36-38

38-40

40-42

42-44

44-46

46-48

48-50

50-52

52-54

54-56

56-58

58-60

60-62

62-64

64-66

8

5

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Oct 26, 11:39 PMNov 3, 3:59 AM

47%chance

384366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

882

If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?

Jun 12, 8:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.71%chance

141561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1517

659

Will a European NT play in the next Copa America?

Jul 9, 4:15 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

3.99%chance

51031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Jun 3, 6:34 PMJun 4, 6:59 AM

56.16%chance

17891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

884

Will One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?

Feb 2, 12:06 PMMay 19, 1:59 PM

45.03%chance

12238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the NTSD ETF be shut down?

Apr 20, 7:27 PMMar 21, 3:00 AM

28.42%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

830

473

Which of the following will I achieve?

Jun 1, 6:02 PMDec 31, 6:56 PM

8133

OptionProbability

2027 USAMO and MOP

Pumac 2026 Finals

ARML 2027 Tiebreakers

CMIMC 2027 Top 10 overall

HMMT 2027 Top 10 overall

70

66

55

38

31

Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040?

Jun 25, 12:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Nintendo (NTDOY)

Apr 16, 6:15 PMApr 17, 3:59 AM

537

OptionProbability

NO

YES

134

93

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