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Prediction markets for Nu

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3721

947

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.69%chance

7327126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2375

1572

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3122287

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

95

3

2

1

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Jan 5, 5:28 AMDec 27, 9:59 PM

28.96%chance

9416397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

450

90

Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Jun 24, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

509589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5692

176

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.68%chance

428190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

587

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.14%chance

226652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12736

7852

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.02%chance

103373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4731

2328

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

233295

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

31

26

13

12

10

9

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10933

9146

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

35.04%chance

8968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2579

1361

By Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.

Oct 3, 11:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.57%chance

5333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10062

9455

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