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Prediction markets for Nu

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Jun 10, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.51%chance

119130000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112335

3921

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Jan 21, 12:55 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

732991

OptionProbability

500

600

700

731 (two years)

800

900

1000

450

1096 (three years)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.16%chance

6724681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

1538

Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

1421245

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-8

9-12

13-17

95

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 7:05 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2219358

OptionProbability

0

1

3

4-5

2

6-7

90

5

2

2

1

1

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?

Mar 3, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

599917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

561

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Apr 24, 11:26 PMApr 24, 11:20 PM

33.3%chance

187719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14154

7065

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

73739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7965

7875

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

55.01%chance

221310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11058

9043

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?

Jan 5, 5:29 AMDec 30, 9:59 PM

58.99%chance

11379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

105

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