Nu News

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

81.55%chance

159140745

OptionVotes

YES

2658

1132

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.13%chance

7126323

OptionVotes

YES

2991

1557

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.68%chance

428190

OptionVotes

YES

1108

587

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.37%chance

174255

OptionVotes

YES

12410

8058

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

92756

OptionVotes

YES

4114

2467

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.4%chance

272482

OptionVotes

YES

10923

9155

Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMJun 30, 10:00 PM

27%chance

191076

OptionVotes

YES

103

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

46.78%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

2026

1742

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

Apr 13, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

The 4-stage escalation trap and which stage we're at now

Iran's nuclear strategy — how many weapons, test detonation logic, timeline

Global power shifts — China, Russia, Iran as a combined bloc vs. the US

Oil control — Iran + Russia potentially controlling 30% of world oil supply

Trump's options — ground troops, oil fields, the deal with Israel containment

NATO's future — whether Article 5 still has any real meaning

Nu News

Prediction markets for Nu

Prediction markets for Nu

Prediction markets for Nu

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

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