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Prediction markets for Nu

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3721

947

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.69%chance

7227125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2374

1572

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Jan 5, 5:28 AMDec 27, 9:59 PM

30.65%chance

9416366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

438

95

Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Jun 24, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.73%chance

498980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5082

197

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.68%chance

428190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

587

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

225803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13025

7677

Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?

Sep 6, 4:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.74%chance

295160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2095

419

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223245

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

31

26

13

12

10

9

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.03%chance

103146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4504

2376

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10933

9146

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

35.04%chance

8968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2579

1361

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