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Prediction markets for Nu

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

17.55%chance

3136474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15558

5160

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.04%chance

8434685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

469

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.13%chance

7126323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2991

1557

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Apr 24, 11:26 PMApr 24, 11:20 PM

34.73%chance

238262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13709

7294

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.17%chance

417606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1314

311

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

143736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11916

8392

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223078

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

92756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4114

2467

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.86%chance

252362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11023

9072

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

46.78%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2026

1742

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