Numeric News

call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Stays alive

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

pass 500 or more executive orders

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

new blockade of a country

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

put his name on a ship in the navy

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

have a journalist arrested

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

Revoke ten or more citizenships

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

Causes Tina Peters' early release

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

ten or more protestors killed during term

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

File lawsuit against a congressperson

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

Nominate a family member to high office

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Dep

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Raise the retirement age for social security

stops all sanctions on Russia

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

resume buying oil from Russia

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

force a former president to testify before Congress

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Enact price controls on groceries

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Add a citizenship question to the census

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Prosecute someone for flag burning

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon himself

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Get rid of Noaa.

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Says 6 7 (or variant)

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Causes derek chauvin's early release

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

take control of a part of greenland

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

orders arrests of any Biden family member

Annex any part of Mexico

Pardon a convicted pedophile

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Replace his Vice President

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Salute Putin

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

add a new state

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Attack a NATO ally.

Pardon p diddy

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

ends black history month

Implement a federal age of consent

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

declares a white history month

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Call for the end of gay marriage

Announce he’s running for a third term

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Implement a federal abortion ban

make statements that are negative about labubu

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

fully nationalize an airline

Call for the end of the Senate

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

ban trans people from holding federal offices

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

repeal an amendment

Withdraw from NATO

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

Call for the end of interracial marriage

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

bans anime

bans 6 7

all time high unemployment reached

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Wearing a white dress after labor day

D-T, magnetic confinement

no fusion power plants will exist in 2100

other fuel, magnetic confinement

D-T, inertial confinement

D-T, other confinement

other fuel, other confinement

YES

NO

Other

YES

Other

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

NO

Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law

A rent freeze in rent-stabilized housing

Raise corporate tax

Creating the Department of Community Safety

Commit 0.5% of NYC's budget to libraries

Free city buses

Free childcare in NYC

Raise income tax

At least two grocery stores operated by the city government

Appoint a Mom-and-Pop Czar

Bets denominated in cryptocurrency not pegged to USD

There will be controversy involving market resolution

Runs on its own domain separate from the rest of Truth Social

Some markets resolved with AI

Has numeric markets

A 2026 election market is resolved differently than the Polymarket or Kalshi version

Donald Trump makes a bet within 3 months of launch

Users can create markets

Has a major security breach within 6 months of launch

Has play-money markets

Overtakes Polymarket in trade volume within 6 months of launch

Full (US) launch in 2025

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall