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Prediction markets for Nvidia AI

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7.79%chance

295505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3441

291

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

Jun 25, 1:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.56%chance

173384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.79%chance

162171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

606

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

72.9%chance

431906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

856

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.07%chance

271122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

954

NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026

May 19, 12:12 PMJan 1, 10:47 AM

27.76%chance

12273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

64

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.07%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

82

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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