NYT News

Activist Investor Fivespan Takes Stake in The New York Times, Urges Bigger AI Investment

7 months ago

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Which of these outcomes of the NYT vs. OpenAI lawsuit will occur?

Dec 29, 1:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21329858

OptionProbability

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

The case settles before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.

Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.

The case appears before the Supreme Court.

Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.

OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.

The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.

The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.

The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.

Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?

Sep 27, 12:54 PMSep 27, 12:46 PM

8.49%chance

5425628

OptionVotes

YES

3292

305

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Dec 27, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.74%chance

789163

OptionVotes

YES

1378

972

Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?

Mar 12, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

375045

OptionProbability

secret cabal of pedophiles in high places

The UK did Nordstream

JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.

Emperor Nero didn't kill himself

Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked

The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself

massive mail ballot fraud in 2020

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

US government found intelligent extraterrestrials

Trump is a Russian agent

John McAfee didn't kill himself

Chemtrails

Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked

Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird

Jimmy Hoffa was whacked

The moon landing was faked

The Holocaust was largely exaggerated

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.46%chance

142255

OptionVotes

YES

1583

632

Will "IABIED is on the NYT bestseller list" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 26, 11:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.69%chance

72104

OptionVotes

YES

2796

846

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

1836

655

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.08%chance

142008

OptionVotes

YES

3191

845

[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Nov 7, 12:06 AMFeb 2, 8:31 PM

48%chance

16832

OptionVotes

YES

199

177

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.16%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

1003

999

Will the print NYT have a top-right A1 story headline that does not mention war in the Middle East in March?

Mar 6, 8:43 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

48.36%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

103

NYT News

Top stories

Prediction markets for NYT

Prediction markets for NYT

Prediction markets for NYT

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Which of these outcomes of the NYT vs. OpenAI lawsuit will occur?

Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Will "IABIED is on the NYT bestseller list" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?

[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Will the print NYT have a top-right A1 story headline that does not mention war in the Middle East in March?

Latest stories