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NYU News

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.56%chance

10349630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6582

4734

Who will win the ACF Nationals Collegiate Quizbowl Championship 2026?

Apr 16, 1:40 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

126449

OptionProbability

Indiana

Berkeley

NYU

Toronto (Canada)

Illinois

Stanford

Columbia

Waterloo (Canada)

McGill (Canada)

Other

Northwestern

WashU

Maryland

Georgia Tech

Penn State

UCI

Chicago

Cornell

Minnesota

Auburn

Harvard

Brown

26

23

17

10

6

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which college or university will the Rizzler attend?

Nov 2, 8:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

122352

OptionProbability

Other

MIT

Penn State

Clemson

RPI

NJIT

Brandeis

Drexel

Caltech

NYU

Cornell

Rutgers

Wellesley

Mount Holyoke

Bryn Mawr

Howard University

Spelman

33

12

8

8

7

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

14

14

13

13

10

8

7

6

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which college or university will Baby Gronk attend?

Nov 2, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6816

OptionProbability

Other

Seton Hall

MIT

NYU

Cornell

Rutgers

Drexel

Brandeis

NJIT

RPI

Penn State

Clemson

Wellesley

Mount Holyoke

Bryn Mawr

Howard University

Spelman

60

6

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Which college or university will Big Justice attend?

Nov 3, 5:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3700

OptionProbability

Other

NYU

Cornell

Rutgers

Drexel

Brandeis

NJIT

RPI

MIT

Penn State

Clemson

Wellesley

Mount Holyoke

Bryn Mawr

Howard University

Spelman

56

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

1

1

1

1

1

NYU financially sanctioned for racial discrimination in 2025?

Mar 22, 9:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.53%chance

11344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Which college will Gus Walz attend?

Aug 27, 6:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7311

OptionProbability

Other

RPI

John Hopkins

Drexel

Cornell

Rutgers

University of Minnesota

NYU

U Penn

Caltech

WPI

NJIT

Clemson

52

9

7

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

1

Where will I go to grad school?

Dec 21, 3:23 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2250

OptionProbability

UC Berkeley

NYU

MIT

Stanford

CMU

Columbia

UW

UT Austin

Caltech

Harvard

Other

10

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

8

8

8

Will Mia Aiyana Cardenas (TKS=>NYU) win emergent ventures by EOY 2025?

Nov 12, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.17%chance

3165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

24

Will Barron Trump graduate from NYU on time or earlier?

Sep 6, 9:35 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

72.83%chance

12160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

Who will read Chicago Open Finals 2026?

Dec 15, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

165

OptionProbability

Young Fenimore Lee (Ohio)

Hazel Singh (NYU)

Mitch McCullar (Penn State)

Iain Carpenter (Illinois)

Jacob O’Rourke (Truman State)

Other

42

24

11

11

6

6

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