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NYU News

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.76%chance

12580952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5304

5117

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

26.09%chance

152808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1777

338

Where will I get in for CS PhD?

Feb 22, 4:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

172472

OptionProbability

UCSD CS

Caltech

Columbia

NYU

TTIC

UCLA

MIT

Berkeley

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which college or university will the Rizzler attend?

Nov 2, 8:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

122402

OptionProbability

Other

MIT

Clemson

Penn State

RPI

NJIT

Brandeis

Caltech

Drexel

NYU

Cornell

Rutgers

Wellesley

Mount Holyoke

Bryn Mawr

Howard University

Spelman

33

11

9

8

7

6

5

5

4

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1961

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

251287

OptionProbability

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Long-term Future Fund

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Center on Long-Term Risk

Lightcone Infrastructure

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

21

14

14

12

8

6

6

6

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which college or university will Baby Gronk attend?

Nov 2, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6816

OptionProbability

Other

Seton Hall

MIT

NYU

Cornell

Rutgers

Drexel

Brandeis

NJIT

RPI

Penn State

Clemson

Wellesley

Mount Holyoke

Bryn Mawr

Howard University

Spelman

60

6

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Which college or university will Big Justice attend?

Nov 3, 5:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3700

OptionProbability

Other

NYU

Cornell

Rutgers

Drexel

Brandeis

NJIT

RPI

MIT

Penn State

Clemson

Wellesley

Mount Holyoke

Bryn Mawr

Howard University

Spelman

56

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

1

1

1

1

1

Will Barron Trump graduate from NYU Stern School of Business?

Apr 20, 11:46 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.09%chance

7416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Which college will Gus Walz attend?

Aug 27, 6:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7322

OptionProbability

Other

Rutgers

NYU

Cornell

University of Minnesota

NJIT

RPI

WPI

Drexel

John Hopkins

Clemson

U Penn

Caltech

67

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

Will Barron Trump graduate from NYU on time or earlier?

Sep 6, 9:35 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

84.56%chance

14277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

43

Who will read Chicago Open Finals 2026?

Dec 15, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5203

OptionProbability

Young Fenimore Lee (Ohio)

Hazel Singh (NYU)

Mitch McCullar (Penn State)

Iain Carpenter (Illinois)

Jacob O’Rourke (Truman State)

Other

62

22

5

5

3

3

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