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Prediction markets for Obama

Will Michelle Obama ever become the President of the USA?

Jul 22, 10:55 AMNov 1, 10:59 PM

3.69%chance

297181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5108

196

Will (any) Trump run against (any) Obama in the 2028 presidential election?

Mar 31, 3:58 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

1.8%chance

106846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7394

135

Obamas get divorced or separated by mid 2030

Feb 10, 10:38 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

12.32%chance

315929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2667

375

Will Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:21 PMMar 30, 7:21 PM

44.9%chance

624814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2316

1674

Will Michelle Obama run in a presidential primary election before 2036?

Aug 28, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.62%chance

324031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

936

If term limits are repealed, will Barack Obama run for president in 2028?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

102965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Will Michelle Obama outlive Laura Bush?

Apr 16, 3:25 AMMar 23, 3:59 AM

94.61%chance

232643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3477

691

Will Obama attend Trump's funeral?

May 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

331534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

1940

Will George W Bush outlive Obama?

Mar 22, 12:25 PMMar 23, 3:59 AM

17.24%chance

351440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

799

Will Barack Obama outlive Angela Merkel?

Mar 22, 3:02 PMMar 23, 3:59 AM

63.66%chance

30671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

842

Will "Was Barack Obama still serving as president i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 18, 7:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.85%chance

4581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1559

930

Will all living US presidents attend Barack Obama's funeral?

Jan 5, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.71%chance

19544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

895

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