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Prediction markets for Observatório do Clima

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.05%chance

14490354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7083

3807

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.62%chance

29233869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3852

3400

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63%chance

24917210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2418

1787

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

32.52%chance

11913386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

1256

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1%chance

387936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2753

1145

Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jun 24, 10:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.36%chance

242774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

935

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

302129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

817

Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?

Feb 2, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

171184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

567

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

47.68%chance

18605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

648

Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?

Feb 5, 6:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.12%chance

16597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

605

Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?

Feb 2, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59%chance

14466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

618

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