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Prediction markets for Observer

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?

Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.52%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2248

445

In 2100, will there be an expert consensus that aliens have been observed?

Jul 19, 3:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.45%chance

181217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1405

422

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.41%chance

29921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

899

Will large-scale spatial curvature of the Universe be observed before 2040?

Oct 3, 1:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.04%chance

18456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

826

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

145

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2030)

Aug 7, 2:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.69%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

112

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will I follow the "benevolent observer challenge" next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)

Sep 20, 7:02 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

5204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

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