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Prediction markets for Observer

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.94%chance

171967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1973

753

Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?

Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.52%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2248

445

In 2100, will there be an expert consensus that aliens have been observed?

Jul 19, 3:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.77%chance

151116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

394

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.93%chance

29892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

864

Will the supermassive dark star candidates observed by JWST exhibit spectroscopy consistent with dark stars?

Sep 22, 9:07 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

18.49%chance

17787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

882

What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)

Mar 15, 9:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6743

OptionProbability

$3.51-3.90 USD

$2.51-3.00 USD

$3.01-3.50 USD

$2.01-2.50 USD

$1.51-2.00 USD

<$1.50 USD

Other

22

18

18

16

14

8

3

Will large-scale spatial curvature of the Universe be observed before 2040?

Oct 3, 1:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.6%chance

15414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

845

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.95%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

66

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