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Prediction markets for OBT

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

58

32

6

4

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 5, 8:01 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3.5%chance

118563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5258

190

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.51%chance

547015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3402

401

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.28%chance

317004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2456

973

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.42%chance

136299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5820

309

Will Jose Luis Ricon obtain a provably safe guarantee that his child (#RiconBabby) won't be autistic?

Aug 4, 9:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.88%chance

52988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?

Jan 17, 5:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.08%chance

191031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

935

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]

May 20, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91025

OptionProbability

December 31

June 30

May 31

13

2

0

Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?

Aug 11, 5:29 PMAug 11, 8:59 PM

5.61%chance

13822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

949

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.9%chance

21563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

945

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.65%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

845

Will Zoox obtain an AV Driverless Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 12, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.57%chance

6397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

953

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