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Prediction markets for OBT

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7021658

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

65

27

5

3

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 5, 8:01 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3.66%chance

128709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5131

195

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.05%chance

317032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2473

968

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

136309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5546

319

Will Antonio Guterres obtain a third term as UN General-Secretary?

Oct 31, 10:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.1%chance

91508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

550

59

Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?

Jan 17, 5:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.08%chance

191031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

935

Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?

Aug 11, 5:29 PMAug 11, 8:59 PM

5.61%chance

13822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

949

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.48%chance

8672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.9%chance

21563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

945

Will Zoox obtain an AV Driverless Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 12, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.01%chance

7431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Is Michael Huang (myself) going to obtain a physics major before 2028

Apr 20, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.91%chance

10264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

165

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