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Prediction markets for OBT

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6216685

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

52

38

6

4

Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?

Jun 15, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.23%chance

5914945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5475

183

Will irrefutable evidence emerge that the first non-human origin craft was first obtained in Italy in 1933?

Jun 11, 12:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.75%chance

254092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2595

897

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37%chance

193322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

1254

Will Jose Luis Ricon obtain a provably safe guarantee that his child (#RiconBabby) won't be autistic?

Aug 4, 9:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.15%chance

52938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025

Apr 12, 4:55 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

35.98%chance

342243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

887

Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?

Jan 17, 5:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.93%chance

18981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

885

Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2025

Dec 10, 10:03 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

30.86%chance

8874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

668

Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?

Aug 11, 5:29 PMAug 11, 8:59 PM

5.44%chance

10816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

947

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.76%chance

20560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

943

Is Michael Huang (myself) going to obtain a physics major before 2028

Apr 20, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.91%chance

10264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

165

Will Serbian passport holders at any point be required to obtain visas to enter Schengen countries by Jan 1st 2026?

Oct 20, 7:56 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

7.37%chance

5230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

34

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