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Prediction markets for OBT

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6318985

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

53

40

4

3

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.65%chance

306759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

982

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 5, 8:01 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

12.96%chance

105209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2592

386

Will irrefutable evidence emerge that the first non-human origin craft was first obtained in Italy in 1933?

Jun 11, 12:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.75%chance

254092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2595

897

Will Jose Luis Ricon obtain a provably safe guarantee that his child (#RiconBabby) won't be autistic?

Aug 4, 9:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.88%chance

52988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

112823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

604

Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?

Jan 17, 5:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.93%chance

18981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

885

Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?

Aug 11, 5:29 PMAug 11, 8:59 PM

5.66%chance

13819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

950

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.9%chance

21563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

945

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.76%chance

4380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

882

Is Michael Huang (myself) going to obtain a physics major before 2028

Apr 20, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.91%chance

10264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

165

Will Zoox obtain an AV Driverless Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 12, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.06%chance

5197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

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