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Prediction markets for OBT

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6016181

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

48

41

7

4

Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?

Jun 15, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

5512739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3895

257

Will irrefutable evidence emerge that the first non-human origin craft was first obtained in Italy in 1933?

Jun 11, 12:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.78%chance

244042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2545

898

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37%chance

193322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

1254

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025

Apr 12, 4:55 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

36%chance

342207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

887

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 4th badge (Rainbow Badge) from Erika?

Feb 26, 7:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

181326

OptionProbability

Not in 2025

July 2025

June 2025

August 2025

May 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

March 2025

April 2025

February 2025

28

21

16

6

5

5

5

5

5

2

2

1

Will Antonio Guterres obtain a third term as UN General-Secretary?

Oct 31, 10:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.29%chance

71203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

89

Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?

Aug 11, 5:29 PMAug 11, 8:59 PM

5.44%chance

10816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

947

Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?

Jan 17, 5:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.97%chance

17711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

994

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.76%chance

20560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

943

Is Michael Huang (myself) going to obtain a physics major before 2028

Apr 20, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

9254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

346

170

Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2025

Dec 10, 10:03 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

57.79%chance

3170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

855

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