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Prediction markets for Obvio

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

Feb 1, 5:55 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

60.55%chance

10010563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

841

527

Which cryptocurrencies will have obviously failed by the end of 2026? (Add your own)

Oct 23, 6:48 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

363643

OptionProbability

Polkadot

Shiba Inu

Binance Coin

Dogecoin

Cardano

Solana

Ripple

Tether USDt

USDC

Ethereum

Bitcoin

48

42

38

29

29

23

17

14

12

11

3

October 16th will obviously be the biggest day in AI this year

Jan 18, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.04%chance

51504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5279

2

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?

Oct 23, 12:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

181098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

843

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

38.69%chance

11944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

In 2030 will VTOL aircraft be the obvious future of most personnel transportation

May 18, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.18%chance

6165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

55

Suggest Obvious Ways To Improve My Prediction Markets React App, Things I Should Read

Feb 6, 7:46 PM

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