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Prediction markets for OCC

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73209459

OptionProbability

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

100

97

29

3

2

1

1

0

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.52%chance

4631646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.91%chance

6017349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4460

230

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.64%chance

447180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

1634

Will more than 150k tech layoffs occur in 2026?

Apr 2, 11:36 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

71.68%chance

195085

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

628

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34%chance

422919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

240

Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

Jan 17, 1:38 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.87%chance

362514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

956

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 6:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.55%chance

512190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

748

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.41%chance

221229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

1030

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

Will a televised football (soccer) match between humanoid robots and professional humans occur before 2030?

Mar 22, 6:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

21846

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

667

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