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Prediction markets for OCC

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66156112

OptionProbability

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

99

92

38

7

2

2

2

0

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17%chance

4631623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.23%chance

5816170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

304

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Will more than 150k tech layoffs occur in 2026?

Apr 2, 11:36 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

78.17%chance

194985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1892

528

Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

Jan 17, 1:38 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.87%chance

362514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

956

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.05%chance

382219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

437

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 6:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.55%chance

512190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

748

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

883

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

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