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Prediction markets for OCC

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

3760013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53434

4038

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

68%chance

12929843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11121

5741

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3329076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Jun 11, 12:13 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

3.84%chance

8728473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3718

758

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1818434

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

84

65

40

16

6

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7%chance

4714368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

426688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2413

1603

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

28.29%chance

213651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

628

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

60%chance

261702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

719

Will a major war in Asia occur during Donald Trumps Presidency?

Nov 6, 6:24 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM

58.46%chance

91298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

843

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.69%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

594

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

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