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Prediction markets for OCC

How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

Mar 6, 11:24 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

79116285

OptionProbability

1 or more

3 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

8 or more

10 or more

24 or more

15 or more

20 or more

100

100

93

60

24

14

5

4

2

2

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3229069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

84.04%chance

12427775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11914

9314

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.33%chance

3421610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16274

7680

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.83%chance

4413588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3695

271

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47250

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

82

69

51

25

17

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

426688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2413

1603

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.69%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

594

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

57.7%chance

231241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

672

Will a major war in Asia occur during Donald Trumps Presidency?

Nov 6, 6:24 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM

46.82%chance

71050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

938

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

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