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Prediction markets for OCC

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75.1%chance

13533531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10389

7611

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

4029402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2119815

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

81

63

28

14

6

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.52%chance

5014628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3125

329

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

Jan 17, 1:38 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.87%chance

362514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

956

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 6:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.75%chance

502177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

764

Will a major war in Asia occur during Donald Trumps Presidency?

Nov 6, 6:24 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM

58.28%chance

101301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

846

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.36%chance

201053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

908

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

959

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