Oceanografía scandal News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A new supreme court justice appointed

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

US national bitcoin reserve created

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

USA experiences a recession.

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump and Obama shake hands

Kennedy Center is repurposed

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump gets covid (again)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

10% fewer government agencies

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

New national park created

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Kennedy Center is demolished

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Joe Biden dies

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

The department of education gets desolved

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

NATO invokes Article 5

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

War is declared against another nation

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

10+ goals in any match

2+ red cards in any match

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

3+ penalty shootout

Mexico survives group stage

Canada survives group stage

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

South American team reaches semi-final

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Player throws captains armband

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Champion is unbeaten

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Spain goes further than France

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

US scores in every single group stage match

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Bottle thrown on field

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Team finishes match with 9 players

25+ people arrested at stadium

French-born player scores against France

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Champion is a first place group stage winner

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

Trump still alive at end of final match

“Puto” chant at match

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Referee falls down

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Trump attends match

Neymar plays in a match

Player dies during World Cup

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

Player tears their ACL

Players cleat falls off their foot

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

Messi to score a free kick

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Team loses after leading 2-0

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

World Cup winner to never trail in a match

Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds

Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match

Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)

Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play

First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)

This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders

Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane

Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties

Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts

Panenka penalty to be scored

Player scores 8+ goals

Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16

A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game

A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals

Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]

An even number of games go to a shootout

Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match

Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)

More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)

England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)

Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)

Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight

German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final

In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games

team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver

Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)

Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)

Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)

USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them

Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final

Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final

France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales

Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal

A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)

Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)

Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)

Goal scored from a header (SF)

Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)

Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?

match

Over 4.5 goals in semi finals

Substitute scores in semi finals

Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final

Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match

English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match

Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal

Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)

Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)

Final combined match score is an odd number (F)

Goal is disallowed for offside (F)

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)

Match is won in extra-time (F)

Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)

Substitute scores a goal (F)

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)

Spain first to score (F)

Match is tied at halftime (F)

First yellow card given to Argentina (F)

Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)

Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium

Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)

Score 0-0 in first part of extra time

Spain wins

Argentina lose Spain

World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)

Asian player gets the red card

FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Asian player misses penalty kick

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

No red cards issued in the Final match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

15+ cards in any match

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Goal scored within 1st minute

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

20+ penalty goals

30+ penalty goals

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Asia team reaches semi final

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Player bit during match

Bald person gets the red card

Football is coming home?

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

Headbutt during match

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

Player gets spat on during match

Ronaldo gets in referee face

England loses on penalties

More own goals than red cards in tourney

VAR overturns second yellow card

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Player shits in the pants during match

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

Trump attends 3 or more games

All 3 host countries win the opener

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Flares in stands during match in USA

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Elon Musk attends match

Betting scandal reported

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Any host nation in quarter final

US goes further than Mexico

Canada goes further than US

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Goal scored from own half

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

Team captain gets red card

Ronaldo scores before Messi

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Team gets removed or disqualified

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

2 UEFA teams in final

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Any match is canceled or postponed

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

Fans invade field during match

Major security incident

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Match is forfeited

Bonnie Blue attending a match

4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Salt Bae attending a match

King Charles attends match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

USA plays Iran

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Ronaldo does jerkin move

Trump dancing at match

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Winning team has a foreign manager

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Another match with 3+ red cards

Players / members of team attempt to defect

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Freddy attends the final match

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Messi gets a yellow card

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

Messi scores on every game he plays

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Ronaldo does not start

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

5+ hat tricks

Messi scores more goals than Mbappe

Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds

Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)

Over 14.5 own goals scored

Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310

Emmanuel Macron attends match

The Netherlands reaches half-final

16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)

17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!

France becomes finalist

France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals

Belgium plays against The Netherlands

Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32

16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)

Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay

FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay

Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in

Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)

Norway becomes finalist

Panenka penalty to be bottled

Three straight games going to penalties

Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout

Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal

Player with 9 or more assists

Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast

Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast

Any Trump attending BIH v USA match

Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup

World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout

A host country reaches the semi-finals

Belgium becomes finalist

Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]

In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches

Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review

🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV

Own goal is scored (Rof16)

Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)

Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)

Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)

Mbappe doing the dictator point

Red card in CAN v MAR?

In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games

3 continents reach semifinals

France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff

Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX

Trump attending the USA Belgium match

Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day

Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today

Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today

Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race

"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards

"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)

There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)

Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)

Own goal is scored (QF)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)

Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)

Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco

Player gets straight red card (QF)

Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game

Sam Altman attends final

JD Vance attends final

Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game

Any Morrocan gets the red card

Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times

France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times

Shirtless player on field during match (QF)

Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)

Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)

[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)

Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)

All teams score 1+ goals (SF)

Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)

Own goal is scored (SF)

Player gets a straight red card (SF)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)

Shirtless player on field during match (SF)

Match is won in extra-time (SF)

Yellow card given for simulation (SF)

Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)

Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)

Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?

Over 17.5 corners in semi finals

Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final

Gavi shown card in semi final

Otamendi shown card in semi final

Anything occurring to make it historical final

The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee

Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final

Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award

Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.

Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final

Own goal is scored (F)

Intruder on field during match (F)

Goal scored in stoppage time (F)

Over 2.5 goals scored (F)

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)

Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)

Goal scored from a header (F)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)

Player gets a straight red card (F)

Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)

Argentina last to score (F)

[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)

Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)

Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)

Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)

Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)

Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)

Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)

Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)

Over 1.5 goals scored (F)

All teams score 1+ goals (F)

First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)

Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)

Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)

No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)

Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)

Yellow card given for simulation (F)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)

Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)

Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals

Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match

"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)

"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot

Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)

The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)

Score 0-0 in second part of extra time

The Jews control at least one nation's government

The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

Santa is rigged

Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

Dream faked the Manhunt videos

DHMO in the water supply

The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

Imane Khelif is intersex

That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

√-1 isn't real

Smartphones listen in on private conversations

The Trump regime intentionally sabotaged the electoral process to stay in power

The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true

Groundhog Day is rigged

Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

Dead Internet theory

The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

John McAfee didn't kill himself

Annie Altman's abuse claims

Gamergate was right

South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

The NBA rigs the draft lottery

The Clintons assasinated their rivals

The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

China made covid 19 in a lab

Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

Rory Stewart worked for MI6

At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

Eating your veggies is bad for your health

Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

China was not genociding Uyghurs

@strutheo is @notrickspringfield

The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"

Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

The CIA killed JFK

COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

Sue Gray was a spy

Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

A cure for cancer has already been found

covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

Princess Diana was assassinated

The NFL is rigged

Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

Harold Holt murdered

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

Bush did 9/11

Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

Israel killed JFK

The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

Ogopogo is real

QAnon

Exercise is bad for your health

A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

Allen Iverson invented A.I.

The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

QR codes are satanic

The Mandella Effect in general is real

The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

Human didnt evolve from apes

You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

Rationalussy isn't real.

Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

The illuminati runs the world

xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

US government is harboring aliens

Tupac is still alive in 2024

Bielefeld does not exist

Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

Birds aren't real

climate change isn't human caused

Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

Climate change isn’t real

The moon landing was fake

The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

Yeti is real or similar creature

Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

*All* health care is net negative for health

Q is Putin

Michelle Obama is a man

Brazilian money is not real

The earth is a dodecahedron

End of the world in 2012

Skibidi Toilet is real

Earth is hollow

It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

Africa isn't real

Flossing is bad for your health

HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

There is no female orgasm

The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

The earth is flat

*All* vaccines are net negative for health

Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

Finland isn't real

Australia isn't real.

5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

Nuclear weapons have never existed

Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

YES

NO

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Significant Rogue AI Incident

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Mass Deportations

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Coup attempt in the United States

Trump is impeached

AGI achieved

US punitive expedition in Mexico

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Joe Exotic is released from prison

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

100k humanoid robots manufactured

A human walks on the Moon

China invades Taiwan

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Nuclear weapon detonation

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Supreme Court packing

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Donald Trump reelected President

China launches military drills around Taiwan

Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations

China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan

The US bombs Iran

Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged

A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up

Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military

At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan

China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft

At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China

A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model

Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer

Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft

China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US

China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan

China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan

China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production

A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

Reports that China is building new concentration camps

An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan

A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault

Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China

Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome

Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific

A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window

Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure

A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances

Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military

Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)

the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)

A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China

Significant constitutional crisis in the US

Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military

A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)

Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company

Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window

Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West

Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea

1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured

50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia

the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China

A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene

Major cyberattack on Western frontier AI lab

Major Earthquake in/near Japan > 7 Richter

The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion

Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific

A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

A human walks on the Moon

At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear

Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

The US reduces sanctions on Russia

Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia

The US attempts to expand its territory by force

Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere

Elon Musk is pardoned

China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds

Attempted coup in Taiwan

the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China

Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader

The US withdraws from NATO

100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader

The US military performs combat operations in Mexico

A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia

AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity

North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity

Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader

Russia cedes territory to China

Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals

Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine

Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building

Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)

Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)

An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast

China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries

A major pandemic occurs

Attempted coup in Russia

Attempted coup in the Phillipines

The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory

The US detonates a nuclear weapon

Vladivostok is not under Russia's control

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges

A nuclear weapon is detonated

Attempted coup in China

Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands

Successful revolution in Iran

Russia detonates a nuclear weapon

Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges

Attempted coup in the US

India detonates a nuclear weapon

The US attacks a NATO member

Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges

China detonates a nuclear weapon

South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

Japan detonates a nuclear weapon

Australia detonates a nuclear weapon

The site is never marketed well enough outside of the rationalist-adjacent community, and there are not enough rationalist-adjacent people to sustain the site.

It is never able to get a critical mass of cis women.

The basic premise of the site is too complicated for people, who prefer to use simpler dating apps.

The concept of gambling on romance is unappealing to most people.

Too few people are interested in trading on random people's matches

It just never ends up taking off, without any particular flaw being the obvious cause

It is never able to get a critical mass of active profiles.

People don't think strangers are more qualified to choose matches for them than themselves

Not enough rationalussy

Other

extreme "everything is public" approach alienates userbase

Manifold as a whole shuts down without it ever having taken off

Unpopular combo of excessive transparency imposed on users / lack of transparency from staff

James pivots to something else

Everyone on earth finds love

people leave the site after finding a match

lack of moderation / lots of harassment make the platform unpleasant to be on

Stripe threatens to stop processing payments

(threat of) legal action

another dating app captures our target audience

It is never able to get a critical mass of good SREs.

It allows minors to join and gets bad PR or legal issues as a result

Messaging failure: The unique value proposition is clear, predictive market match making, however the deliverable does not appear to be clear. Manifold.love could be calibrated to deliver hook-ups or long-term relationships, not both.

Markets are not predictive due to difficulty measuring or defining outcomes, or due to low probability of outcomes

The administration team proves incapable of writing or enforcing rules that effectively keep members safe, and this causes some form of scandal.

All the good dates join @Mira 's cult and the remainder are left to suffer alone - wailing and gnashing their teeth as incels.

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nick Bostrom racist email

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

AI-related cyberattack

AI-designed cyberweapon

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

Major AI safety incident or accident

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.