OF News

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.81%chance

1279603195

OptionVotes

YES

656217

28211

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.64%chance

34402754093

OptionVotes

YES

12404

7868

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

17872241912

OptionProbability

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Jensen Huang

Other

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Sam Altman

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Benjamin Netanyahu

Xi Jinping

Gavin Newsom

Jerome Powell

Charlie Kirk

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Mark Carney

Lee Jae Myung

Nicolas Maduro

Ahmed Al-Sharaa

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Vladimir Putin

Beyonce

Elon Musk

AOC

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Prediction Markets [including any founder/s or platform/s by name]

Sanae Takaichi

Nayib Bukele

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.45%chance

958695692

OptionVotes

YES

10084

9803

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

159662260

OptionProbability

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Other

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Selling data / API access / colocation

Interest on held cash

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

904510910

OptionVotes

YES

16189

11566

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

48915

11661

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

22%chance

829421112

OptionVotes

YES

2200

759

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.32%chance

480364022

OptionVotes

YES

2874

2054

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.04%chance

194268635

OptionVotes

YES

5839

3348

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46%chance

232195052

OptionVotes

YES

1215

1031

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.66%chance

235169020

OptionProbability

YES

4766

4764

OF News

Prediction markets for OF

Prediction markets for OF

Prediction markets for OF

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Latest stories