OptionProbability
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Bake for 15 more minutes
Do a second rise
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Improve the bread
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Autolyse 20 minutes
Make the bread taste good
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
put ketchup and cheese on it
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Make banana bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Add garlic
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Let dough sit 48 hrs
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Brush on an egg wash
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Make the bread great again
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Strawberry jelly filling
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Bake vegimite into it.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Increase water by 50 g
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
it needs more salt
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Quadruple salt
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
89
87
85
85
82
81
81
78
78
78
76
76
76
73
72
69
66
63
62
62
59
59
58
57
57
55
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
47
47
45
45
44
43
43
43
42
41
40
40
40
38
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
27
26
26
26
26
25
24
24
24
24
21
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
15
15
14
14
13
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.
Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.
The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.
The case settles before a verdict is reached.
New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.
The case appears before the Supreme Court.
Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.
The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.
New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.
The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.
The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.
79
59
54
53
52
44
40
34
28
27
17
14
13
12
5
5
4
4
3
OptionProbability
Democrats 66 (D66)
Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)
GroenLinks–PvdA
JA21
Christian Union (CU)
Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)
Socialist Party (SP)
Reformed Political Party (SGP)
Volt Netherlands
Party for the Animals (PvdD)
Forum for Democracy (FvD)
Party for Freedom (PVV)
New Social Contract (NSC)
Denk
98
97
87
38
32
8
5
5
5
4
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1202
832
OptionProbability
Aliens
EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering
EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions
Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.
Simulation Hypothesis
Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)
UFOs are time travelers
Holographic Principle
UFOs are angels
UFOs are psychic manifestations
Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)
Other
UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities
Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)
UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence
AI is harder than practical interstellar travel
UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos
UFOs are magic
13
13
12
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
3
3
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elon complains about the situation
Twitter Executive/s insult Elon Musk
Parag Agrawal publicly comments on the lawsuit
Elon Musk provides anything as evidence to support his allegations of "gross negligence" and "willful misconduct" by the former Twitter executives?
Elon Musk apologizes to Executives
Lawsuit proceeds to trial
Elon ordered to pay 128 Million
Twitter Executives refuse settlement
Twitter Executive/s found to have committed gross negligence or willful misconduct
Elon appeals something that's upheld
100
33
21
20
8
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Initiation and Investigation: A member or committee of the House of Representatives begins impeachment proceedings. The House Judiciary Committee investigates the allegations of misconduct
Charges: If the committee finds sufficient evidence, it acts as a prosecutor and brings charges against the judge.
The U.S. Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court overturns Judge Engelmayer's ruling to block Executive cabinet and staffers from accessing U.S. Treasury records, and no impeachment proceedings are initiated by May 9, 2025.
House Votes YES to Impeach: The entire House of Representatives votes on the impeachment. A simple majority is required to impeach the judge.
Senate Trial and Removal: If impeached, the case is referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the judge from office.
100
100
38
30
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2249
445
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1066
72
OptionVotes
YES
NO
120
90
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1264
791
OptionProbability
Lawsuit over before 2029
Lawsuit is settled out of court
Midjourney implements content filters to prevent copyright infringement²
Lawsuit over before 2028
Midjorney pays Disney and/or Universal⁴
Midjourney appeals the court's decision
Midjourney continues operations without changes at the end³
Lawsuit over before 2027
Midjourney no longer provides image generation by the end of it¹
Midjourney agrees to licensing terms with Disney and/or Universal
69
68
55
50
48
45
45
45
37
34
