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Prediction markets for of Companies

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 1, 5:31 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

112132668

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Anthropic

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

76

20

2

2

0

0

0

0

Most valuable company at the end of 2025?

Dec 24, 1:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

154112926

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Alphabet (Google)

TSMC

Amazon

Meta

Tesla

OpenAI

Other

60

24

13

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18671335

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Alphabet

Tesla

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Amazon

TSMC

Broadcom

Meta

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

SpaceX

ASML

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

25

16

14

7

6

6

6

4

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

3728444

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

31

19

17

13

8

7

Apple announces AI company purchase for over $500m by end of 2025

Jan 3, 3:01 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

45.05%chance

18227969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6141

3594

What will be the most valuable company in the world at the end of 2030?

Dec 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5111648

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Other

Alphabet (Google)

Strategy (MSTR)

Tesla

Amazon

Meta (Facebook)

OpenAI

Saudi Aramco

Berkshire Hathaway

SpaceX

TSMC

Tencent

ByteDance

ASML

Samsung

Intel

Anthropic

Eli Lilly

24

20

18

10

6

5

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.67%chance

1388307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2986

2139

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

47

39

39

30

25

21

19

Will the top company by market cap be at least five times larger than the next largest company by the end of 2027?

Aug 4, 4:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.87%chance

82682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3421

292

Will a company by @barak raise 2mil before the end of 2025?

Mar 17, 1:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.18%chance

11702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

698

70

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