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Prediction markets for of Congress

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

16254471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

894

Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?

Mar 11, 1:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.82%chance

1619372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11794

8479

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.18%chance

207516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12458

8027

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.74%chance

152821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2153

464

Will Musk-backed third-party candidate(s) win any seats in Congress by the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.52%chance

212744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2097

477

Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress?

Nov 21, 6:49 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.76%chance

122331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

155

Will Congress pass sweeping deregulatory measures by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.58%chance

221554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

953

Yang's 2025 predictions: Will at least one member of Congress or the Senate declare him or herself to be an Independent?

Dec 31, 2:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.7%chance

231516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

974

Will the president during the 2024-2028 term be impeached by at least one body of congress during his term?

May 3, 9:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.29%chance

201461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

946

Will a member of United States congress die in 2026?

Sep 29, 5:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.06%chance

141371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1832

823

In 2025, will any member of U.S. Congress change their party affiliation?

Oct 22, 4:35 PMJan 1, 11:01 AM

54.44%chance

8824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

915

Will Congress revert tax law to allow for full expensing of US-based R&D in 2025?

Jan 4, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.25%chance

5634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

612

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